History repeating itself?

[Krist]

One of my friends posted this and I thought I would see if anyone else has any thoughts on it.

This is not a discussion whether Brexit is a good idea or bad, it's about the wider impact of significant changes to the political equilibrium, for lack of a better term!

https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/history-tells-us-what-will-happen-next-with-brexit-trump-a3fefd154714#.70e0wo2ea

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[Shaun]

Interesting, maybe. However in that article I just get an overwhelming sense of the authors own views. The author sounds like a left wing idealist. The remarks like 'Brexit — a group of angry people winning a fight' are what really let articles like this down.

The 'The liberal intellectuals are always in the minority' as he puts it have forced their will upon the western world over decades. The mere suggestion that leaving a corrupt union which is so far from its original intentions will lead to a nuclear war is frankly absurd.

[WDave40]

A very interesting read, and potentially some truth in it, but the author does seem to be catastrophising the future quite a lot.

In any rate, a world war situation in the modern age probably would spell the end of the human race. With the technology available to us now compared to 70 years ago....

[sheppsea]

History repeating itself?

I wouldn't say I feel as pessimistic about the article, but the parallels it draws are hard to argue with and I think we all agree it feels like we're living in worrying times - human history does have a tendency to repeat itself

The mere suggestion that leaving a corrupt union which is so far from its original intentions will lead to a nuclear war is frankly absurd.

That's isn't how I understood the article, I understood the article was suggesting Brexit may be a trigger following a far more complex web of issues and underlying tensions before it; in the same way we didn't go to WW1 because a minor Royal was killed, but that event did trigger the tensions there before

As I said, I don't agree with the doom and gloom of the article, but I do see the points it makes

[ValeTudoGuy]

Spends time justifying why he knows more than his readers.

Over simplifies the start of WW1 by citing a symptom as a cause.

Casually claims that people only understand folklore and can't read or learn anything their parents didnt spout.... Without citation of evidence.

Uses hindsight [of course, Historian] to claim the brilliance of long dead social commentators he couldnt possible known the motives of.

I happen to agree with his Zimbabwe farms dig.

Bold claims that America is Great by "pretty well any statistics"... [Health Care, Litigation, Hate Crime, Murder Rate, Military Activity, Human Rights... To name a couple areas of doubt]. Not sneering, just an observation of ways that America may not be so great. [Which America are we talking about anyway? North, South, USA? I have assumed USA]

The affore mentioned "angry people winning a fight" not only seems presumptuous but also at a glance appears dismissive of the emotion of anger, brilliant things can be achieved from a point of anger.

A claim that everything is linked but then an apparent retreat to a mindset that Brexit is the start and not just part of a bigger world issue.

Claims the EU is a major force in supressing Putin's military activity [pushing EU sanctions while seemingly ignoring US Sanctions], it could be argued that the EU has been a bumbling factor that did little to nothing during the recent Crimean annexation.

Numerous claims of narcissim towards political leaders [Of course theres a load of narcissists leading and trying to lead countries.... It's in their nature] and yet the artical starts and ends in perhaps the most narcissistic of ways.

I need not have wrote this reply, of course the writer already knew I would have these objections, historians past and present all knew it.......



Not the greatest, most balanced or least sensationalist piece in my humble, but at least Tobias is thinking about important stuff.

[smokey joe]

I enjoyed that article. It does state the obvious, history repeats, people follow charismatic leaders, human nature can be self destructive.

The modern global population boom hasn't lead to better government, equal distribution of resources and the formulation of a plan for our races sustained existence. No it is of course it heading for a fight over the scraps. When all is said & done who/ what we are in a pinch is scared animals.

[smokey joe]

History repeating itself?

After the referendum the next topic on the political agenda was trident. What would the outcome of been if there was a referendum on that? Would 35 billion would be better spent elsewhere?

We weakened our position as a nation leaving the union and committed to spending a vast sum on weapons we'll never use. How much better would every citizens life be if that money was spent differently.

If WW3 breaks out I'll eat my words, I can die knowing my 'enemies' will too. That isn't what I would of chosen in a vote.

[ValeTudoGuy]

I still dont agree or believe we have "weakened our position as a nation"

[smokey joe]

I suppose it remains to be seen. Short term it appears to have.

[Niela]

Of course, you can argue about the details, but I clearly see history repeating itself. We had an economic crisis and globalisation. While we are all happy to get all these luxury goods for cheap, we are not happy that others are manufacturing them now and we don't really need as many people for our workforces anymore. So what happens when peoples living standards drop? They want a) someone to blame and b) a strong leader that makes it all happen.

Being German, I studied the rise of the Nazis in school to great detail. It is the exact same mechanics you can observe in Britain and many other countries in Europe and the world. The populist movements first start with discrediting all sources of information but their own. They called it Luegenpresse (lying press), a term that is today used again by PEGIDA in Dresden and the far right movement. I encountered the same when discussing with Brexiteers. Articles from Newspapers that weren't on their political spectrum were not even read and dismissed as biased BS. Studies in the US have shown that right wing voters only trust a very small number of rightwing channels and press.

So once you eliminated facts and reason from the debate (something Brexit has shown as well. I still remember my disbelief of the number of outright lies on the pamphlet sent by the leave campaign), you open the door for emotions. And nothing is easier triggered and nurtured that anger and hatred. Especially when you have a strawman that is conveniently outside your country, culture or ideology. For Erdogan that is the Guellen movment, for Britain that has been traditionally the EU, Putin uses NATO and the West and more and more people discover Muslims for the same use.

All this might not accumulate in the horrors of WW2, but the principles and mechanisms are the same.

All there is to do is try to get the economy going. With what means, that's another debate. But once people are better off again, their lust of anger and hatred goes away and they are back to being busy making something of their lives. If people don't have a perspective in life, you can't reach them.

[Niela]

PS: I just saw a friend going from leftwing political views to spewing hate about Muslims and losing himself in a rant of fantasies about killing Merkel and terrorists. Preventive killings of refugees to scare off the rest included. The guys is a very very old friend of mine and he has a personal crisis because he hates his job and doesn't get paid much for it. To see how someone 'normal' can turn radical within a matter of a year or two is frightening and I know there are many many more of him out there.

Yes, the article is doom and gloom, but I do see a real threat of going back to authoritarian and fascists rulers.

[PeeJay]

It can all be summed up in a famous quote that goes something like 'Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it'

[the pondering moose]

It can all be summed up in a famous quote that goes something like 'Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it'

That was George Santayana I think.

This is naturally a minefield, but I can't help but get the impression of parallels with the past forming up (for good or ill). Perhaps because some (maybe many?) people fail to even acknowledge history or the historical imperative as a force on current thinking. This isn't helped by the vast majority of the press seeming to be exhibiting increasingly skewed viewpoints that are concurently increasingly appearing to be more "instructional" than "information".