Cuba's economy and smoking Bans

[nicwing]

It really could be a lot worse than a 14% drop. I suspect it's more about the economic situation than smoking laws considering that Spain is such a large consumer, and their economy doesn't exactly look robust at the moment.

But someone recently told me that the Spanish market was dreadful at the moment. This could be a major factor as I gather the UK market is buoyant thanks in good part to yourselves!!!

[G-man]

Although there would be some fights over trademark rights some of the key players in the cigar industry already retain the rights to some of the Cuban brands. It would be a win win to all involved. Like most mega corps. based in the US the plans have already been put into motion for the embargo lifting.

[daverave999]

But someone recently told me that the Spanish market was dreadful at the moment. This could be a major factor as I gather the UK market is buoyant thanks in good part to yourselves!!!

Yeah that was my point.
They've got no money so they ain't buying anything!

[captain duff]

Although there would be some fights over trademark rights some of the key players in the cigar industry already retain the rights to some of the Cuban brands. It would be a win win to all involved. Like most mega corps. based in the US the plans have already been put into motion for the embargo lifting.

How would this work though? For example, it took years of protracted court cases in a number of countries for the 'fake' american budweiser to come to a compromise over distribution with the proper czech stuff. But surely in the case of Cuban cigar production things are even more complicated due to companies being nationalised after the revolution and then their names being re-established by former owners elsewhere. Now if the lifting of the embargo did not lead to a fall in the current regime in Cuba you then have the issue of logo copyright being complicated by actual legal ownership issues don't you, assuming that Cuba was not about to allow their industry to be privatised (and if it was that certainly wouldn't be of benefit to the workers in it in my opinion!)...

[Soulmanure]

My guess is that one of the effects of a change in US/Cuba relations would be a general boost in their economy due to the return of the tourist industry, which would mean a general rise in the standard of living.. The mitigating factor will remain the global economic downturn. Until that shifts, people will be smoking less in general. But an increase in US smokers couldn't help but be a boost (though that would mean a tax increase for us).

[rokkitsci]

Have faith Monkey. I think once our cousins can legally smoke Cubans they'll quickly separate the wheat from the chaff and through demand and their customary wholesale/retail price competitiveness, get prices back to a realistic level.

I don't think it's the prices that will be the problem. My main worry is that in order to meet the production needs opening up trade with the US, the quality of the stogies will take a terrific hit. What with most Yanks not knowing a CC from an El Fuma del Suomi Ballaboosta Elegante Culebra with the fermented Turkmenistani llama intestine wrapper, they'll be happy as little girls to finally be smoking "the real deal" whilst the rest of the knowledgeable cigar-smoking world will be racing to the loo to get the foul taste out of their mouths.

[Soulmanure]

Possibly--a way to compare would be to find out if pre-embargo cc's were lower in quality to what we got later. As well, you still have the demands of a world market that might abandon them if there was a drop in quality,

[Paulie]

Interesting article.

An interview in a recent CA magazine of Benjamin Menendez who is a Senior VP of General Cigar, he makes a compelling arguement that if the embargo was lifted the queue would be round the block for CC's during the first week. By the second it would be much smaller once buyers realise that Nc's are just as good and in some cases better than CC's for much less $$$

I tend to agree, I think if and when the embargo is lifted, it will have a 'spike' effect on demand which will then soon balance out to be easy to manage without a loss of quality.

[cbob]

What with most Yanks not knowing a CC from an El Fuma del Suomi Ballaboosta Elegante Culebra (snip), they'll be happy as little girls to finally be smoking "the real deal"

You make a good point, but I know many seasoned smokers in the U.S. of A. who are quite used to Cuban cigars. They have been buying and smoking them (illegally) for all these years.

I'd be more worried about all the extra fakes that will be flooding the internet at inflated prices due to the perception that an unrestricted US market is a license to print money. There are already so many folk who have a bad opinion of Cuban tobacco based on product they have purchased from "trusted" online vendors that I suspect that Habanos will continue to raise prices on specialty, hard to copy vitolas to attract those discriminating smokers who are not sure if too many regular production cigars are not counterfeit. As long as we are happy to walk into our local B&M and plunk down $100 for a "Limited" or "Regional" cigar, the only question will soon be "how high can the prices go?"

[G-man]

My take on the whole thing ! The cigar Boom of the 1990s. Those who know their history will be fine those that want to be pompis will pay for $hit and think they are the cats Meow. LOL